Will VSI Make It Back Alive?
Today I will embark on my first cruise ship and yes my wife will be with me. I’m going to the Bahamas for four days with the family and yes I will still be gambling on this trip. But the sad part about this cruise is that I had to buy sandals (I bought Nike Jordan sandals) for this cruise and here is my two cents about men wearing sandals. The last two famous men that wore sandals (Jesus and Caesar) and look what happen to them?
Since this is my first time on a cruise I decide to put future odds on what will happen first on my cruise vacation. Bet these odds now as the public will be all over this and we are expecting a bigger handle on my adventures than we picked up at the 2009 Preakness:
What will Happen First to VSI on His Cruise Ship
Odds
1/2 – My wife meets a rich man and throws me overboard.
5/1 – Somalia Pirates take over the ship with Johnny Depp as one of the pirates.
8/1 – Get on the Jenny Craig cruise instead of mine.
10/1 – Sun burned my privates.
15/1 – I find Tom Hanks’ “Wilson” while swimming in the ocean.
20/1 – While scuba diving, I get eaten by a shark but the shark spits me out.
25/1 – The cruise puts me to work and I start bartending with Isaac (Love Boat).
50/1 – Celine Dion is on the ship and I throw her overboard.
100/1 – Tattoo is on my cruise and he becomes my new mini-me.
200/1 – I get lost in the Bermuda Triangle and I miss the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series.
400/1 – I drink too much and I find Daryl Hannah (movie Splash) and an older Ariel (Little Mermaid) in my room.
1000/1 – I have sex with Kate Winslet on the ship while she is wearing the Hope Diamond.
1,000,000/1 – My wife lets me bring a hot blonde to the room.
2,000,000/1 – All of the above.
Worst Left-Handed Hitting Teams And Trends
I did a story for The Mothership discussing handicapping left-handed pitching and why it’s a good way to do some 5-minute capping each day. ON that page I listed the Top 10 teams against southpaws, but here is the list of the absolute worst teams – in other words, teams you want to fade hard and play ‘under’ when they face lefties – this year against left-handed pitching:
30. Oakland (.201) – The A’s really just suck, period, but their struggles against lefties have been going on for years. They were No. 29 in the league against southpaws last season and No. 26 the year before that. But when your second-best right-handed hitter is probably Mark Ellis you are in trouble.
29. Arizona (.219) – This one is still really surprising to me considering that the D-Backs were absolutely an automatic “play on” against lefties around this time last year. They crushed southpaws through 2007 and at one point were on a 27-9 run against them last May. But since then they are just 20-27 against southpaws, including a horrid 2-7 this season. And we’re not talking about losing to elite lefties. We’re talking Franklin Morales and John Lannan.
28. Florida (.220) – Florida’s free swingers really have some tough times with lefties, especially the soft tossers. Jamie Moyer alone is enough to keep the Fish on this list. Florida is just 1-12 in its last 13 meetings with the Phillies southpaw.
27. Cincinnati (.221) – So far this season Brandon Phillips has gotten off to a slow start and they have been without Ed Encarnacion. Throw in that Joey Votto and Jay Bruce are both left-handed themselves and that means that your four best hitters haven’t helped you out in this category this year. The Reds are 4-11-1 against the total when facing a lefty starter.
26. San Diego (.222) – The Dads were No. 28 in the Majors last year against lefties so I guess this is improvement. They don’t hit the ball much anyway, regardless of “hand”, and after a strong 5-1 start to this season against southies the Padres have dumped five straight against them.
25. St. Louis (.227) – You would almost think that Albert Pujols could pull the Cards into the middle ranks in this category all by himself but that’s just not the case. This is where the Cards really miss Troy Glaus, who just beats up lefties, and Ryan Ludwick who is injured now and wasn’t playing every day (for some reason) before that. When they have those three healthy – Pujols, Ludwick and Glaus – this team will do some lefty damage. Also, despite their woes the Cards are still 7-3 ATS against lefty starters.
24. Chicago Cubs (.235) – This is the shocking name on the list right here. Last season the Cubs were second in the Majors in hitting lefties and were nearly an automatic “play on” facing a southpaw. But so far this year injuries to Aramis Ramirez and Derek Lee have really pulled the plug on their offense. I fully expect this to turn around for the Cubs.
23. Pittsburgh (.244) – This is a “chicken or the egg” situation; do the Pirates struggle against lefties because they suck or do part of their struggles come from the fact that they are so bad against lefties? Pittsburgh is 7-19 in its last 26 games against a southpaw and they are a pathetic 20-51 in their last 71 games on the road against a lefty. They are also just 3-7 against the total when facing a lefty.
22. Baltimore (.246) – The Orioles are another team that have been struggling against southpaws for a long time, and that partly has to do with the fact that this team has struggled overall for a long time. Baltimore is just 20-49 in its last 69 games against a lefty starter and they are 23-54 in their last 77 road games against lefties.
21. Chicago White Sox (.252) – The White Sox have been steadily improving against lefties and I wouldn’t consider .250 or higher as anything to sweat. They were the worst team in the league against lefties in 2007 and then No. 24 last season so the Sox are clearly improving. And when you consider that no one on this team is really hitting well right now I think this number can go up.
NBA Conference Finals Odds And Leans
Below I’ve posted some NBA Conference Finals odds for both the East and West. Personally, I think that the Cavaliers are a – and I’m so confident I’m going to use the dreaded “L Word” – an absolute LOCK to roll through their matchup with the Magic. The only question is sweep or no sweep. At -650 it’s probably not worth what you’d have to wager to turn any real profit (You got $6,500 just to win $1,000?) because LeBron could, I don’t know, be abducted by aliens or something. But the Exact Series Price could be worth a look.
The Lakers-Nuggets series, on the other hand, is a really intriguing one. We know that the Lakers are the best team and – arguably – have the best player going right now. But Denver has been playing better basketball and has been more impressive through the playoffs this year. I also think that Denver stands a better chance of winning a game in L.A. than the Lakers do of taking one in Denver, so that gives the Nuggets a lot of value in my opinion.
Here are the odds to win the NBA Championship, odds to win the Eastern Conference and Western Conference Finals, and odds on the exact series prices for both series:
Odds to win the 2009 NBA Championship:
Los Angeles Lakers +165
Cleveland Cavaliers -125
Denver Nuggets +625
Orlando Magic +1415
Series Prices:
Western Conference Finals
Denver Nuggets +215
Los Angeles Lakers -265
Eastern Conference Finals
Orlando Magic +475
Cleveland Cavaliers -650
Exact Series Results:
Nuggets vs. Lakers - Series Result
Nuggets win 4 - 0 +3000
Nuggets win 4 - 1 +2250
Nuggets win 4 - 2 +500
Nuggets win 4 - 3 +725
Lakers win 4 - 0 +825
Lakers win 4 - 1 +345
Lakers win 4 - 2 +425
Lakers win 4 - 3 +225
Magic vs. Cavaliers - Series Result
Magic wins 4 - 0 +6550
Magic wins 4 - 1 +3050
Magic wins 4 - 2 +825
Magic wins 4 - 3 +1215
Cavaliers win 4 - 0 +465
Cavaliers win 4 - 1 +205
Cavaliers win 4 - 2 +405
Cavaliers win 4 - 3 +225
Not That You Should, But Here Are The NBA Draft Lottery Odds
The lottery takes place Tuesday night during halftime of the Los Angeles Lakers-Denver Nuggets game with the NBA Draft going down on June 25. In the meantime, here are each of the non-playoff teams’ odds to win the NBA Draft lottery:
* Sacramento Kings (17-65) - 25.0%
* Washington Wizards (19-63) - 17.8%
* Los Angeles Clippers (19-63) - 17.7%
* Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59) - 11.9%
* Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58) - 7.6%
* Memphis Grizzlies (24-58) - 7.5%
* Golden State Warriors (29-53) - 4.3%
* New York Knicks (32-50) - 2.8%
* Toronto Raptors (33-49) - 1.7%
* Milwaukee Bucks (34-48) - 1.0%
* New Jersey Nets (34-38) - 0.9%
* Charlotte Bobcats (35-47) - 0.7%
* Indiana Pacers (36-46) - 0.6%
* Phoenix Suns (46-36)- 0.5%
Now, here are the odds that you can bet to win the NBA Draft lottery:
* Sacramento Kings (17-65) - +175
* Washington Wizards (19-63) - +200
* Los Angeles Clippers (19-63) - +250
* Oklahoma City Thunder (23-59) - +500
* Minnesota Timberwolves (24-58) - +800
* Memphis Grizzlies (24-58) - +800
* Golden State Warriors (29-53) - +1000
* New York Knicks (32-50) - +1500
* Toronto Raptors (33-49) - +2000
* Milwaukee Bucks (34-48) - +3000
* New Jersey Nets (34-38) - +6000
* Charlotte Bobcats (35-47) - +7500
* Indiana Pacers (36-46) - +10000
* Phoenix Suns (46-36) - +12500
Now, why someone would bet on the NBA Draft lottery, I have no idea. But if I told you that I had a 25 percent system or a 25 percent trend that I was going to play and you could only play it at +175 would you go ahead with the bet? Because I know I wouldn’t.
(Oh, but don’t be stunned if Oklahoma City pulls out a “shocking” win in the lottery so they can keep Oklahoma product Blake Griffin in the state.)
Also, don’t forget to check out my articles on 2009 NBA Draft Sleepers and 2009 NBA Draft Prospects.
ESPN To Investigate Delaware Gambling Efforts
By Robert Ferringo
ESPN’s “investigative journalism show” E:60 is going to be running a segment tonight looking at Delaware’s recent efforts to legalize sports gambling in its state casinos.The show runs at 7 p.m. tonight on ESPN’s flagship station and here is a preview of the segment:
E:60 Delaware Betting Preview from ESPN Communications on Vimeo.
Now, I’m sure that ESPN is going to trot out the same whiny drivel on this subject about the evils of gambling and what a bad idea this is. (In the preview they start to discuss the “integrity of sports”. You know, because between NBA officials, recruiting violations in NCAA basketball and football, and steroids in baseball and football, no one would ever, every question the integrity of sports as they are.” But we’ll see. I’ll have a full writeup tomorrow on what my thoughts on the piece were.
Cavaliers Covering Like Clockwork
It’s been a while since I’ve written an article, but yes, I am still alive. I have been swamped between getting ready for the WNBA as the summer is the only chance I get to work on many things for the latter half of the summer and the fall. But, the first article I wanted to start with is in regards to the Cleveland Cavaliers.
This team is like clockwork. For starters, look what they have accomplished this year: They are 50-32 ATS. They are 8-0 ATS in the Playoffs. They covered each of their playoff games. In fact, they have covered their last 35 of 40. That’s right, this team is an amazing 35-5 over their last 40 games ATS. I cannot even begin to tell you how mind-boggling that statistic is.
Irrelevant of the fact they have dominated in the regular season to have the best record in the league, have home court through the NBA Finals, to have the league’s MVP leading their cause and was undefeated with their starting lineup at home, this team has turned it up even more during the playoffs:
@ Atlanta: 84-74 (10 point win) (Under 183) (W-ATS)
@ Atlanta: 97-82 (15 point win) (Under 181) (W-ATS)
Atlanta: 105-85 (20 point win) (Over 181.5) (W-ATS)
Atlanta: 99-72 (25 point win) (Under 180) (W-ATS)
@ Detroit: 99-78 (21 point win) (Elimination game) (Under 178.5) (W-ATS)
@ Detroit: 79-68 (11 point win) (Under 178.5) (W-ATS)
Detroit: 94-82 (12 point win) (Under 177.5) (W-ATS)
Detroit: 102-84 (18 point win) (Over 176.5) (W-ATS)
Now, I know the west coast crowd will argue a few things. For starters, the Pistons and Hawks are nothing compared to the competition in the East. To this, I concede a bit. Yes, the West has some great teams and I think the West has an argument when they claim they have better teams than the East. And, certainly the Pistons blow. Having said that, the East still has the current champion in the Boston Celtics, and these Cavs had the best record in the league even surpassing the current champs. What the Cavs have been able to accomplish this year is nothing short of unbelievable.
I simply cannot remember the last team that went on a streak of 35-5 ATS over the last 40. It’s almost like this team knows what the spread is (as most Ohio teams) and looks forward to covering that spread. Winning is not enough for the Cavs. This team nearly always knows what the spread is. The Cavs have not only won all eight playoff games as well, but they have done it in convincing fashion winning each of those games by double-digits. Notice that of their last 8 games, 6 have gone have Under which is an indication of their style of play and the solid defense that this team prides itself on.
It should be interesting to see who the Cavs will face next round. I personally feel that the Cavs will have a tougher time with the Magic than the C’s. Nonetheless, it will be fun to see if the Cavs can continue this clockwork routine as they dismantle/cover against one team after another.
VSI, Vegas Books Thankful That Cavs-Hawks Are Done
Contributed By Vegas Sports Informer
Monday night the Cleveland Cavaliers closed out their series against the Atlanta Hawks and all I have to say about that is thank the heavens because this series was a complete bore. The Cleveland Cavaliers swept the Atlanta Hawks 4-0 and they also beat them by double-digits all four games. I know the Hawks had many injuries, but come on Atlanta, look at Houston. The Rockets had no Yao Ming on Sunday against the LA Lakers and the Rockets beat them by double-digits. The Rockets showed heart in front of their home crowd but Atlanta, on Monday night, showed no heart or effort at all. I mean, Maurice Evans let Wally Szczerbiak fake him out of his jock and dunk the ball. If you don’t know who Wally Szcerbiak is he is white as Wonderbread.
During this series I caught myself flipping the channels and watching reruns of the Brady Bunch. Heck the Brady Five (excluding Cindy because she is a tattle tale) could have gave the Cavaliers a better game. I remember watching an episode that showed Greg with some pretty good moves down low. And if Marcia Brady wears those short skirts she could be a good distraction on the bench. Thanks to Cleveland last night the game was so boring I had to watch The Hills (MTV show) with my wife. And do you know what I had to do after that? Yes, talk about our feelings! Thanks Atlanta Hawks; you couldn’t have made a closer game for me?
I know for a fact that the Vegas books are glad this series is over because they were getting killed on all four games. Cleveland covered all four games (Game #4 opened at –9 ½) against the spread and if they wanted to I believe King James and crew could have won all four games by 20 plus. I’m just hoping the next round for the Cavaliers (either Boston or Orlando) will be better because the Eastern Conference Finals could be another bore if the Cavaliers play like they did against Detroit and Atlanta. I hope so because I can’t watch anymore Reality TV with my wife.
Mavs Get Spurned In Game 3; Round 4 Tonight
Contributed By Nolan Sinclair
The NBA officials really took one away from the Mavs Satrday night – no doubt about it.
Dallas was counted out of their series with the Nuggets after Game 1 as no one thought they were tough enough to win. Then came Game 2 and it was proven yet again that the Mavs just didn’t have the muscle to compete with the new-look “physical” Nuggets. But the books installed the Mavs as a four-point chalk at home in Game 3, even though Denver was clearly the better team.
Dallas came out tough in Game 3 throwing everything they could at this Denver team. Josh Howard gave it his all on two sprained ankles, scoring 14 points and grabbing seven rebounds in almost 30 minutes of play. Dirk “Do Work” reminded the NBA that he was one of the best players in the league and he silenced his critics by playing through the “too soft” label and scoring 33 points while pulling down 16 boards. Dallas was strong, they were physical, and they were rewarded by going to the line for 49 free throws, hitting 41.
Then with nine seconds left the officials decided to kick the Mavs franchise square in the nuts.
If you haven’t seen the replay by now, here’s a quick recap:
Denver was down one with seven seconds left, with the ball out of bounds on the left side of the court. They decided to inbound the ball to Carmelo Anothony and let him do his thing for the win. Anthony dribbled right and loss control of the ball getting it back just in time to get by a double team and run right into Antoine Wright. Dallas had a foul to give so Wright reached in and fouled Anthony just as he reached the three-point line.
But the thing is, the whistle never blew. After fouling Anthony, Wright stopped playing and watched Melo toe the arch and bury what would be the game winning three-point shot with just over one second to play. Dirk Nowitzki was able to force up a desperation three as time expired but it was in vain as Denver now owns a 3-0 lead in the series.
Why the HELL did the official not blow the whistle? Everyone in the gym knew that the Mavs had a foul to give and they would use it as the ball handler, whom ever it was going to be, put the ball on the deck. Yet, the tweet, tweet of the whistle was not heard as the officials suddenly thought it was a lollipop in their mouth and not a piece of plastic that needs to be blown on to work. In that regards they came up short compared to the crack whores of Hollywood Blvd.
Following the game, numerous Mavericks lost their minds with Josh Howard and Mark Cuban stood out among the chaos. Howard went absolutely ape-$hize, screaming at the officials to the point of being restrained by Jerry Stackhouse (the only reason Stack left his spot on the bench was to get some TV time). Mark Cuban was walking down the sideline screaming at the officials and shoving any cameraman that came within an arms distance. And the best part of it all the Nuggets wouldn’t leave the floor, making matters even worse. Kenyon Martin and Chris Anderson, two stand-up individuals in the Nuggets organization were standing around beating their chests and yelling at the Mavs and their fans for being upset. Nice touch Kenyon, you scumbag!
(The only thing that topped Kenyon’s scumbaggery was Cuban actually going over to Martin’s mom and telling her what a dickhead her son is. Classic stuff: multibillion dollar owner yelling at someone’s mom about a basketball game.)
Dallas is on the verge of getting swept by Denver and heading home for the rest of the summer, and if I were you I would watch it happen. Something is going to go wrong in Game 4 and an absolute melee’ is going to occur, mark my words. TheMavs are two-point favorites tonight at home and I would think that emotion (and the refs, maybe) would be on their side.
So You Wanna Be A Pro Sports Bettor?
Whenever I tell people what I do for a living I get an initial reaction somewhere between confusion and intrigue. Some people don’t fully “get it” until I reference “Two For The Money” (and then tell them it’s actually nothing like that). Others’ ears perk up and they can’t hear enough. But the two things I stress to them when they inquire is that A) I absolutely love what I do and I hope I never have another job and B) it is a level of stress that I can’t fully describe and it truly is a job that never, ever stops, 24-7-365.
Anyway, there was a really good article about how to become a professional sports bettor at The Mothership from Dave Busk, who is making a cameo this summer with Doc’s Sports Services. Busk actually beat out several hundred people in an online football handicapping contest last fall in order to get this opportunity. He was then fully vetted and after our brass determined that he could be an asset to our clients this MLB season we “turned him loose” with a one-season contract, as per the contest stipulations.
Busk has some solid insight and some good advice for any of you that think you got the chops to be a handicapper. I think it’s worth a look.
Some Random Thoughts And Baseless Rumors About Manny Ramirez
Listen, let me first say that this blog isn’t really for spreading baseless rumors or innuendo. However, this is still the Internet and, well, that’s what the Internet is for. So keep that in mind as you read on.
Second, as a handicapper I don’t care why or how Manny Ramirez was suspended for 50 games. I only care that he was suspended and how that’s going to impact me making money betting on or against the Dodgers. And, as you can tell from this article on the home page, my thought is that all of this is going to be blown way out of proportion and we’re actually going to get some fantastic odds on L.A. over the next few weeks.
In my estimation, the Dodgers have gone from a team that I’ve been betting blind for the last week to a team that I will handicap and selectively play just like any other team.
A perfect example is tonight’s game against Washington. I’m sure all of the wannabe sharps are pounding the Nationals because the line on this game has plummeted from an open of -180 to -145. However, it’s still the Nationals. And even without Manny this is still a very good team. But we will see.
Now, that’s my stance and I’m sticking to it. But I also wanted to pass on some baseless rumors and innuendo that I’ve heard regarding Manny’s situation.
Obviously Ramirez is an idiot because when he received any drug from any doctor his next move should have been to place a call to Major League Baseball and drop a, “Hey, I just got this drug prescribed. Is it cool that I take it?” I mean, that’s academic. And you can’t feel bad for a guy who is that foolish.
However, the weirdest part of this whole story was why he was taking the drug. The phrase “personal medical use” is what has been thrown out there. And the first time I heard that it shot up the red flags. “What does that mean?” Well, let’s think about this for a second. According to my sources in Vegas, it’s pretty well known that Manny is one that likes the ladies. And if you believe any of the lies and baseless rumors that are tossed out in sites like this one he likes them a lot.
So what could “personal medical use” mean? Could they be boner pills? Could it be treatment of an STD? See, if he didn’t care about what it was he would likely just come out and say that I took this drug for this reason. And maybe he will do that and strike all of this down. But if he isn’t going to come out and say anything because it’s “private” then I don’t think it’s a stretch to think that it’s something that he might be embarrassed about.
Again, I am 100 percent for the right to privacy, ESPECIALLY in regards to medical conditions. I’m just saying that because Manny is one of the more recognizable faces in the Western Hemisphere he doesn’t really have the same leeway or luxury that the rest of us have. What I am saying is that Manny is screwed either way in this situation: either he says nothing and everyone from here to eternity will believe that he’s on steroids, or he comes out and says what the drugs were and what they were for and maybe has to reveal something personally embarrassing about himself.
So let’s not be quick to judge here. At least not as quick to judge as dickheads like Bill Plaschke and other ESPN bobbleheads and know-nothings. Instead, just take the high road like I have and start spreading unsubstantiated rumors on your fledgling blog.
Regardless, I don’t care – my money is still on the Dodgers tonight.
Posts
No comments:
Post a Comment