Preakness Field Growing With Musket Man, Gen. Quarters
The Preakness field is rounding into shape as, according to the Baltimore Sun, Musket Man and General Quarters have decided that they were going to march in Pimlico next Saturday. That now brings the confirmed number of horses in this year’s field to eight.
The Preakness has a field limit of 14 horses.
So far Derby winner Mine That Bird, as well as third-place finisher Musket Man and fourth-place horse Papa Clem have all committed to the second leg of the Triple Crown. Flying Private, a D. Wayne Lukas horse that finished dead last at Churchill Downs, is the fourth Derby starter that will be in the Preakness field.
So far Pioneerof The Nile, the Derby runner-up, has not committed to Pimlico. Chocolate Candy and Quality Road are also no-gos, and Fresian Fire is on the fence. I Want Revenge is just trying to stay alive at this point.
Here is a list of the confirmed field for the 134th running of the Preakness Stakes on Saturday, May 16 in Pimlico:
Mine That Bird
Musket Man
Papa Clem
Flying Private
Big Drama
General Quarters
Hull
Terrain
Fade Dates For Teams On “Extended Road Trips”
Earlier this week I wrote an article for Doc’s Sports main site detailing a strategy to fade teams on the back end of an “extended road trip”. I define “extended road trip” as any trip that takes a team through at least three cities and sees that team play at least eight games. I also said I’d come up with a list of dates this year for teams that are in this situation and you can find that after the jump.
Also, remember that this list is subject to change. Things like rainouts and Random Acts of God can muck up a schedule and lower the qualifiers. However, I will say that if a team is going through a three- or four-city road trip and they have one or two rainouts I will likely still be fading them, especially if they started playing one of the games and then had to stop.
One such situation presents itself on Thursday in San Diego. The Arizona Diamondbacks are on the end of a three-city swing (Milwaukee for four, Los Angeles for two, San Diego for two) and they still qualify. However, they are also an N.L. West team and as I detailed in the article that division was the only one that actually saw its clubs post a winning record in those situations. We also have an Haren on the mound, so stay tuned.
Here is a list of dates for each team:
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Grading Clarification: Houston vs. Washington (5/5)
Just wanted to issue a grading clarification regarding yesterday’s wacky Houston-Washington game. I spent all day being pissed off because we had the ‘over’ at 8.5(the game was 10-10 when it was suspended in the 10th inning) and I thought we got jipped out of what should have been an easy, easy cash.
Well, come to find out it was an easy, easy cash. I spoke with our very own Vegas Sports Informer and he let me know that all of the Las Vegas books actually paid out on the total as well as Washington on the runline. He also made some calls for me and confirmed that the online books paid out of these wagers as well.
The idea is that since the game went a full nine innings the total was legit. It makes perfect sense, whether the game had gone ‘over’ by one run or by 12, and I thought that’s the way it should be. But usually, in my experience, books have been quick to pull the ol’ “No Action” when there is anything fishy with suspended or postponed games.
I’m not 100 percent sure what the books, online and in Vegas, would have done if the game had been postponed and then resumed today. But in this rare instance they paid out and that’s all I care about.
I bring this up to clarify for my clients that were on that total and also to bring up to our readers to make sure that you know your individual book’s rules BEFORE you start betting with them. Nothing is worse than not being able to cash in on an easy score because of some technicality. Also, knowing the rules beforehand might change the way you bet on a game in which rain is in the forecast. So, again, my advice is to double-check with your books to see how they grade out suspended, postponed, or rained out (but decided) games in Major League Baseball.
So now I just get to be pissed off that I didn’t go bigger on that game!
Mine That Bird Ensures That He (Likely) Won’t Win The Preakness
Mine That Bird, the 50-to-1 long shot winner of last week’s sloppy Kentucky Derby, plans to run in next week’s Preakness Stakes. The good news for The Bird is that the 10-day forecast calls for rain at Pimlico. And that’s actually good for all of us, since the debauchery that generally accompanies this leg of the Triple Crown will be ramped up a notch in sloppy conditions. But it’s even better for The Bird since it already has proven itself as a mudder. (I’m not sure if his mudder was a mudder, but that’s another story.)
The bad news is that since 1980 there have been just 13 double-digit underdogs that have won the Kentucky Derby and exactly three of the 13 went on to win at the Preakness Stakes. Interestingly, all three of the winners have come from the last decade, Funny Cide in 2003, War Emblem in 2002 and Charismatic in 1999. I’m not exactly sure what that means, but I can say that Funny Cide (2-to-1) and War Emblem (3-to-1) were short-odds favorites at Pimolico and Charismatic was just 8-to-1 when it took Preakness.
The full field for the Preakness has not yet been finalized, so there are not yet anyPreakness Odds. However, you can click here for the full odds when they are posted.
Here are the last 13 Kentucky Derby winners that won the Run for the Roses as an underdog of 9.5-to-1 or higher:
2005 - Giacomo (50-to-1) – finished third
2003 - Funny Cide (13-to-1) - won
2002 - War Emblem (21) - won
2001 - Monarchos (11) – finished sixth
1999 – Charismatic (31) - won
1995 – Thunder Gulch (25)
1994 – Go For Gin (9.5)
1993 – Sea Hero (17)
1992 – Lil E. Tee (17)
1990 – Unbridled (11)
1986 – Ferdinand (18)
1982 – Gato Del Sol (21)
1980 – Genuine Risk (13)
Don’t Forget An Umbrella, Or To Cap Mother Nature
Looks like ESPN and the rest of the regional media that dominates our consciousness is going to have to wait just a bit longer before they can flood us with sights and sounds involving The Greatest And Most Important Rivalry And Series Ever In The History Of Everything, the Red Sox vs. the Yankees.
Rain is all over the East Coast and it looks like three separate series are going to get backed up today because of it. The Yankees-Red Sox (100 percent chance of rain), the Mets-Braves (60 percent chance of rain) and the Astros-Nationals (80 percent). Originally it appeared that the Brewers-Pirates were going to get rained out as well but that front has blown through.
Handicapping the weather can, at times, be as important as any factor that you consider when wagering. That is why, for example, the oddsmakers don’t release totals on Chicago Cubs home games until the morning of: they need to see which way the wind was blowing.
If you haven’t been handicapping the weather and the stadiums then you’ve been a step or two behind the books and any sharp gambler. Here is a link to a pertinent page on weather.com’s website. They have a fantastic page that breaks down each individual Major League stadium each day, including which way the wind blows. It’s definitely worth a book mark and it’s something I check every day.
VSI Is Still Irrelevant In Our Books
Contributed by Vegas Sports Informer
Of course this NFL Draft had its big names like Matthew Stafford, Michael Crabtree, and Mark Sanchez but Round 7 was were the phone lines were burning up. Everyone in the NFL knew that Matthew Stafford was the No. 1 draft pick on Saturday but all 32 teams were looking at the Mr. Irrelevant pick (last pick of the draft).
Yes, the Kansas City Chiefs picked South Carolina’s kicker Ryan Succop in the 7th Round (256th) and that was the final pick of the 2009 NFL Draft. But teams all over the league were looking at a non-college graduate who never played organize football and is an addicted sports gambler. Yes, it’s true my cell phone was off the hook Sunday evening and the NFL wanted me, the Vegas Sports Informer. Why, you ask? Well this is the scouting report that was in the Sporting News magazine (not true) on both me and Ryan Succop:
NFL Scouting Report
Ryan Succop – Kicker – South Carolina
(Drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs) Ryan Succop was 20-for-30 in his field-goal attempts and was a perfect 30-30 in extra points for Steve Spurrier’s team in 2008. He didn’t make the All-SEC team, but still was the fifth-rated kicker on Mel Kiper’s ESPN NFL Draft board. New Chiefs GM Scott Piolo apparently saw enough in Ryan Succop to make him one of two kickers taken this year in the draft and really how important is a kicker. If Tony Danza can play a kicker in the blockbuster movie “The Garbage Picking Field Goal Kicking Philadelphia Phenomenon” then this position in my eyes doesn’t deserve to be in the draft.
Vegas Sports Informer – Sports Handicapper – Las Vegas
VSI went to college as long as Lindsay Lohan dated men (not long). VSI has never even played high school football (weighed about 100 lbs including his wet t-shirt on). But all 32 teams were looking at him during the draft. Why? Because VSI has cashed his last (4) 8 Unit NFL and College Football Game of the Years that’s why! He has over thousands of betting trends that he has cashed for over a decade in football gambling. But again the NFL was interested in some of those trends and that’s why teams were looking at VSI. VSI has tracked teams that play well on grass, who has winning records coming off a double-digit losses on the road when that Sunday had rain, and teams who lost by a field goal when a Viagra commercial was playing on the next channel. If an NFL team had a guy with VSI skills they will be able to know how to scout different or when they are going to win or lose. High Times magazine has scouted VSI and in their NFL draft section of their magazine said, “This sports handicapper is like the Nostradamus of NFL gambling and his trends are unbelievable!”
The 2009 NFL Draft is over and again Mr. Irrelevant went to Succop of South Carolina but VSI has given thoughts of signing a free agent contract from a NFL team but hasn’t told the public who has contacted him. But just think if the Kansas City Chief selected VSI instead of Ryan Succop. VSI could have been in the same locker room as Matt Cassel, Larry Johnson, and Zach Thomas. But I can tell you one thing: I will not play for the New England Patriots. Why not? I don’t want to sign a multi-year million dollar contract for the Pats and then Tom Brady’s wife (Gisele Bundchen) takes one look at me and divorces him. I don’t need that kind of drama during my football handicapping season.
Small Hill Having Mountainous Impact For Jays
Have you fellas noticed what Aaron Hill has been doing of late? The young man has been the biggest fantasy surprise for many owners and he is the best thing that has happened to the top of the Jays lineup in quite some time.
Here are Aaron’s Numbers thus far this year:
At Bats: 97
HR: 5
Avg: .371
RBI: 20
R: 15
SB: 1
The 27-year-old LSU grad is making a name for himself. He showed some potential years prior, but he has really had a breakout season this year. The 5’11 second baseman has been slowly improving and I give the Jays a lot of credit for showing confidence in this young man rather than going out into the market and shopping for a bigger name.
Aaron entered the league in 2005 and had a .274 batting average (361 at bats). Then, he had a much better 2006 batting .291 and having six home runs and 50 RBI. In 2007 he had a .292 average once again but had a surge in power - hitting for 17 home runs and 78 RBI. Then, he had a down year in 2008, batting .263 and having just two home runs and 20 RBI. Of course, he only had 205 at bats that year as he was struggling to find his rhythm all of 2008.
But that has all changed this year. Already Aaron has put together 97 at bats on the season, with an average of .371. For a young man that has a career high of 17 home runs and to have five at the start of the season it truly shows his increase in power as well as being more efficient at the plate. Aaron had just 54 hits last year altogether and this year he already has 35 hits. He is one of the key reasons why the Jays are atop their division ahead of the Red Sox, Yanks and Rays.
If you are looking for some good value in your fantasy league or if you are looking for one of the reasons the Jays are top 5 in offense in many categories this year, look no further than Aaron Hill.
Derby Post Positions Announced
By Robert Ferringo
The Kentucky Derby draw was held this afternoon with much less fan fare than last year’s primetime event on ESPN. The Worldwide Sleazes didn’t even pick up the draw for telecast, mainly because this year’s field lacks the pinache that last year had with Big Brown and its flamboyant owners.
Regardless, the post positions have been settled. I’ll have a little more breakdown on this even later, but for now this is the field of the 135th running of the Kentucky Derby:
Post Position Horse Jockey Trainer Odds
1 West Side Bernie Stewart Elliott Kelly Breen 30-1
2 Musket Man Eibar Coa Derek Ryan 20-1
3 Mr. Hot Stuff N/A Eoin Harty 30-1
4 Advice N/A Todd Pletcher 30-1
5 Hold Me Back Kent Desormeaux Bill Mott 15-1
6 Friesan Fire Gabriel Saez J. Larry Jones 5-to-1
7 Papa Clem Rafael Bejarano Gary Stute 20-1
8 Mine That Bird Calvin Borel Bennie Woolley Jr. 50-1
9 Join in the Dance N/A Todd Pletcher 50-1
10 Regal Ransom Alan Garcia Saeed bin Suroor 30-1
11 Chocolate Candy Mike Smith Jerry Hollendorfer 20-1
12 General Quarters Julien Leparoux Tom McCarthy 20-1
13 I Want Revenge Joe Talamo Jeff Mullins 3-to-1
14 Atomic Rain Joe Bravo Kelly Breen 50-1
15 Dunkirk Edgar Prado Todd Pletcher 4-to-1
16 Pioneerof the Nile Garrett Gomez Bob Baffert 4-to-1
17 Summer Bird Chris Rosier Tim Ice 50-1
18 Nowhere to Hide N/A Nick Zito 50-1
19 Desert Party Ramon Dominguez Saeed bin Suroor 15-1
20 Flying Private Robby Albarado D. Wayne Lukas 50-1
Is It Time For Timmy To Take His Ball And Go Home?
Contributed by Nolan Sinclair
Now, before you start screaming at me I want you to open your mind to something that you may disagree with. All I am asking is that you at least consider what it is that I have to offer and after you read this if you still disagree than fine, you are entitled to your opinion.
It is time for Tim Duncan to pull a Barry Sanders and shockingly retire.
There, I said it. What are the first things that come into your mind? “This guy is an idiot.” Well slow down with the name-calling and keep reading.
In my opinion I am speaking about the best power forward ever to play the game. Yes, better than Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, and any other player from the days when Magic and Michael were tearing up the NBA. Tim Duncan has better fundamentals than almost any player that has ever put on basketball shoes, and this is what separates him from so many players. Yet, I still feel it is time for the “Big Fundamental” to hang up his shoes.
If you take away his 1998-99 and 2004-05 seasons in which he missed numerous games due to injury, this season Timmy has put up some of the worst stats of his career. This season has been highlighted by less minutes, less attempts, less rebounds, less steals, less blocks, and less points. Now I know that this Spurs team wasn’t as good as they have been in the past, but they still won 50 games with Duncan averaging a double-double at 19.3 points and 10.7 rebounds, but he took a beating doing so. Every time you turned on a Spurs game you would see Timmy getting banged around, trying to work his way around a double-team of guys that were brutes. It was as if people were using strategy seen in hockey game: just send in some Neanderthal to bang around the other teams best player.
Again, I know that this team stayed afloat even without Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili as both hurt themselves at different points this season. And I know that this is primarily because of Tim Duncan. But I don’t think he has many years left of carrying a team. Outside of himself, Parker, and Ginobili, this team is not very good at all. Making players like Bruce Bowen, and Kurt Thomas look good is finally taking a toll on Mr. Duncan.
This Spurs team is slowly but surely becoming Tony Parker’s team. And why shouldn’t it be when you have Eva Longoria in the stands and Tony scoring in the lane more often than Ron Burgandy drinks three-fingers of Glenlivet with a side of cheese? Parker has played brilliantly this season even in games when Tim hasn’t performed at his usual level. Even coach Pop has noticed calling for the pick-and-roll more in favor of the penetration by Parker and less for the pick and pop jumper that Duncan has hit for years.
Tim Duncan celebrated his 33rd birthday on Saturday and next year doesn’t look any easier as more than half of their team will either be 30 years old or will be celebrating their 30th birthday at some point next season. In reality, Duncan will play another five to seven years. But that doesn’t mean that he should at least consider walking away near the height of his game.
I am sure that as I finish this blog the Spurs are preparing themselves to make a comeback on the Mavs and rip through the NBA playoffs on their way to their latest “odd” year Championship, but it’s time for one of my favorites to consider what this league and his talent has provided him with. Tim Duncan will go down in history as one of the greatest players ever to play in the NBA and it would be a shame to see his stats plummet due to his ageing team and skills. I would hate to watch Tim Duncan step on the floor and average 10 points and 6 rebounds a game. He is too good for that and he deserves better. It doesn’t have to be next year, but a few more years of trying to carry a team when Manu hurts his whatever, and watching Tony Parker take more and more shots, should make the decision to just walk away a little bit easier.
C-Billups Earning Backers C-Notes As Nuggets Roll On
Contributed By Indian Cowboy
As the Nuggets took on the Hornets in Game 4, it truly showed the difference one player makes on a team. Usually when you see a new player come into a system he impacts it either on the offensive or defensive end. But with Chauncey, this team has been impacted on the offensive and defensive end.
With the arrival of Billups, Denver is 57-29 on the year. The team he left in the Pistons was an utter disaster and finished the year getting swept by the Cavs – something the Pistons had not done under Billups’ reign.
The Nuggets have always been able to score and this year is no different. The team is 6th in the league in scoring. But, that is where the similarities end from last year. With Billups handling the ball, understanding defenses, his leadership abilities and being able to get his teammates involved, the Nuggets are 6th in the league in field goal percentage at 47%. The Nuggets are a much better three point shooting team as well shooting 37% from behind the arc (13th in the league). Tack that on with the fact they are holding opponents to a 44% shooting clip (4th in the league) and you have yourself a much more dynamic combo than in years’ past for the Nuggets.
Denver shows up to the court with a sense of excitement and more importantly - an edge. It is as if they have a smirk on their face and have a secret weapon they are going to unleash. This team has a chip on its shoulder and an air of confidence about them that we have not seen before. Since the opening tip of this series, it has rarely been in doubt who the victor of this series was going to be. Denver took control of the reigns and was confident from start to finish. Think about it, how many actually think New Orleans has a shot at winning this series? Many people had picked the Hornets prior to this series starting, but it quickly became apparent that the Nuggets are in another league right now.
And if there was any doubt, a 60-point road win on Monday ended it.
Do the Nuggets defeat the Lakers eventually? Probably not. But, if there was a team that can give the Lakers a run for their money it will be the Denver Nuggets this year. It will not be the Portland Trailblazers as many had thought (Portland won’t even make it past the first round), it will not be the Dallas Mavericks or anyone else – it will be the Denver Nuggets. Bear in mind that Denver has the ability to go to LA and win a game on the road with Chauncey. They stifled the Lakers with their defense in Denver earlier this year and this team has the tools to make an upset. Granted, I think the Lakers probably win in 6, but nevertheless, it just goes to show the difference one player can make in so many different elements to propel his team to the next level.
Congrats Joe Dumars. Now go fire yourself.
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